By Houses and Holes in Global Macro
at 9:30 am on September 13, 2022 | 84 comments
Peter Zeihan with the latest summary.
In the lead-up to the Jobs & Skills Summit,
HSBC Global Research with the note: Key
Citi Global Economics with the note: CITI'S
I teed off with some thoughts vis what is unfolding in the weekend reads for anyone interested……
OK my thoughts on the Ukraine Russia stoush.
OK, obviously in the last week the Russians have coughed up a load of territory up to the East of Kharkov. I think it is locally serious and presumably they will be placing less pressure on Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. But I also think we are well past the point where they were likely to get Slavyansk or Kramatorsk, and I find myself wondering if in their inner thoughts they too knew that. It is very good for many of the people who will now be back in the country they belong to, but will be a far more nervous affair for those who remained under Russian occupation and just worked with the then occupiers (my current understanding is that there were plenty do precisely this).
The Ukrainian side has done very well in terms of planning an offensive, and after their seeming failure to make much headway down near Kherson that will firm them up. The Russians are all of a sudden coming out with announcements of ‘Tactical regrouping’ which look a touch too convenient. They have had a dusting off and I suspect they know it, and have been caught with their pants down. This is (if one looks at history) a standard failing of the Russian military. The logistics angle looks to me as though it has failed., and Ukrainian logistics look effective. That said, it is very expensive for the Ukraine military in terms of lives. It will certainly be so for the Russian military too, but the lives involved probably count for less.
But I dont think it is an end of the game event.
My reasoning is this. From here the only way to win the war is either for the Ukrainians to throw in the towel – which isnt going to happen, and they will continue to be supported with arms – or for the Russians to be comprehensively defeated in the field in such a way as the Ukrainian side is posing a threat to Russia. I dont think that will happen either. I think it fairly obvious that some parts of what the Russians have invaded is obviously pro Russian (Lugansk, parts of Donetsk and Crimea for starters) and at the point (were it to happen) the Russians were to be whacked out of the rest of what they control I think there would be epic level hostility in those locales. Up near Kharkov (a city I know quite well, my wifes family comes from towns on both sides of the border between Kharkov and Belgorod) is not one of those locales, though I would think the local sentiment could be influenced by how ‘nice’ the Russians have been while in control.
My view is that from about here the game becomes an economic exhaustion test. The gas oil sanctions and capital sanctions game is well known. Europe will be screaming for energy in less than 6 weeks. The fuel cap and end of crude contracts takes full effect from maybe January, so the current account windfall Russia has experienced ends then and they become China and India’s (and the developing world) beeeeaaach about there. My current well informed understanding is that Moscow and St Petersburg are doing summer pretty much as they usually do, there has been no general call up and that the shelves are still stocked just fine. There has been some mounting disquiet and a little bit of rumour. I was told that one very big Oligarch had proposed funding the Ukrainians to the tune of a Billion USD to get himself off the sanctions list (thats probably bull but the fact the story is doing the rounds may be an indication of nerves).
Ukraine is past the point of economic exhaustion, and is now solely dependent on NATO, EU and American largesse. They will keep getting it. The question then would become ‘if they boot the Russians out of everywhere but Donetsk Lugansk and Crimea how much of a funding price would those place on getting them back?’ (if that is possible – and I think we are a very long way from that)
On that line we are about a month out from Europe getting cold. Most places have worn a 7-10 fold increase in gas prices. Germany and Poland have got coal back into play, and almost everywhere there is a sense of ‘what will we be doing to keep warm?’ The Baltic States have started telling visa holders from Russian (a large number of people) that they will not be renewing visas, and that those Russians who own property in those countries had best start thinking of selling them.
But either way I just see an endless grind from here. The next Russian Presidential election is about 17 months away. I cant see VVP backing off from here. If he goes to that election with either large chunks of Ukraine in his hands, or with a piece of paper stating there will ne no NATO missiles in Ukraine, then he will win in a landslide. The Americans first and foremost will die in a ditch to prevent him having that. He may be forced into a general call up, and my read is that he would be reasonably well supported were he to do so (even if it is strategic madness). He will be thinking of ways to make things expensive for particularly Europe so that they start pushing for a deal. I doubt he will get that My thinking is long term war is with us for some time to come – and that means plenty more surprises of the military kind.
My hastily slapped out thoughts this sunday.
Of course the real strategic issue – which I have pointed out often enough and which is why I thought there needed to be a deal back in the summer (as opposed to me being a ‘Putin lover’) – is that the only way to genuinely defeat Russia and ensure it remains defeated is to enfeeble Russia. Maybe break it up into smaller countries (but I personally dont think that possible), and almost certainly squeeze its military capacity, certainly impoverish the people. Maybe all of that is achievable at the end of a gun (if Russia were to genuinely cock things up) but at that pointy, we would have an economic dynamic of Russia would still be the producer of natural resources the rest of the world would need – the minerals and the energy, the crops, the water – and Russia would continue to generate money. All of the nations around Russia need those commodities – Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, Central Asia, and even East Asia and China to a large degree. Where the money is generated there will always be resources for a ‘strong man’ which to me will mean Russia will just grow another one. Where there are resources in need there will always be corruption too. Even an enfeebled Russia would have things a stronger Europe (let alone Ukraine) or Asia would want and would seek to control access to. So that for me would mean that Europe (and particularly Ukraine) would always have an imperative to be inherently involved with corruption in Russia. And that would bring the Russians back to always thinking ‘we may as well have our own strong man’
Vis the thought Russia may bring out the Nukes
VVP has stated this straight out – if Russia is to be annihilated then he sees no point in NOT using the nukes – and on that very score he is at one with the vast bulk of the Russian people. My observation of the Russians (I lived amongst them for a decade) is that they will be ‘brave’ and ‘heroic’ and history tells us that if it is a matter of sacrifice they need to make then they will highly likely do just that.
That said I dont think we are anywhere near Nuke time yet. My current gauge would be that the other side of winter some of the implications may start to be coming home on all sides.
It all would have been far far easier simply to come to agreement a year ago on ‘there will be no nukes in Ukraine aimed at Russia’ and ‘there will be some autonomy for the people in Eastern Ukraine’ in exchange for ‘Russia promises to keep its military away from the Ukrainian borders and all sides promise not to shoot anything at anyone’
If there is a general mobilisation NATO would significantly ramp up support, they have to as Russian intentions would be uncertain, this would only serve to exhaust Russian forces further. For this reason I doubt it can happen.
Is that possible for NATO to do? There are a lot of reports that their stockpiles of arms are depleted and with an energy crisis on hand will they be able to restock? Also how many of those arms are reliant on production from China (hopefully none, but everything else has been off-shored to them it seems.).
Let’s consider then the equipment that they haven’t even made available to the Ukrainians. Germany hasn’t shipped a single main battle tank to Ukraine, the could conceivably ship hundreds within a few months. Russia is pulling gear from the 60’s out of storage. There are rumours the US is already training Ukranian pilots in the f16.
Yes I hear the Russians are having the same issues, which is not surprising considering their military budget. But, I’m not talking battle systems I’m talking the nuts and bolts things like munitions. At least that is what I’ve been reading is where the issues are.
Honestly, I don’t think Russia has a chance so long as continued support from the West is always on offer and maintained. I’m pretty sure financial support to Ukraine alone has already surpassed Russia’s annual military spending. This puts Ukraine’s military budget well within the top 10 of all countries, If supply can be maintained Russia will remain pressured.
Not sure about your analysis Gunna even through you have historical ties to the place.
I’ve known Ukraine immigrants who told me that Putin could not be reasoned with, back in 2013, and his end goal was total occupation of the country. Doing an agreement with Putin that “there will be no nukes in Ukraine aimed at Russia” wasn’t going to change the course of history. Putins excuses of NATO expansion was bs and just a veil to launch an attack on Ukraine, because that was his end goal anyways. Everything Putin has done was to claw back Ukraine with any means available (black mail of energy included).
The US will keep funding Ukraine until Russia has been pushed back to its boarders.
75% of missles shot at Ukraine are now shot down and the US have planned on purchasing NASAM air defence batteries for Ukraine, Germany announced more AA (outside of Gepards) for Ukraine. – Lend-Lease has just come on-line – Furthermore, there are mass negotiations of Russian troops in the South after the successful counter offensive in the North.
Putin is done, as soon as he deploys a nuke, he done for in double time.
Assuming that Putin is done – i dont think he is, but lets just assume you are right – what do you think comes next?
This is undoubtably the worry. I think once Biden was informed of the alternatives he realised Putin isn’t a man you necessarily want to get rid of.
Yes, once Putin goes, however that may happen, there is going to be a massive power struggle by some, that’s why I hope it’s led by the Russian people and not the FSB, oligarchs etc as these groups likely to make Russian problems worse in the long run (though might appear better short term).
I also saw a report that Putin has said the oligarchs should form their own private armies! But I’m wondering if this is real as Putin would not want potential competitors to also have armed forces, though if he’s having to get weapons from NK maybe he really is so desperate he’d do this? I am also beginning to question the assumption that Russia really does have such massive military hardware capabilities even if it does force conscription, it makes little sense to maintain equipment in good order during the last decade or more if there are no troops to man them & the use of older weapons systems might seem to support this (even if much of this was for the militias of the Donbas).
Today, also news that 18 local councils have signed a letter calling for Putin to go, admittedly they are not powerful in Russian system, and unclear to me if it is just a rehash by western press of St Pietersburg letter.
Maybe you should just not believe every “report” you read. If everything in this page is true then why hasn’t Ukraine already won the war?
@Lex I don’t! I’m questioning if it’s true or not, as I said, I really do think that would happen, it’ll be a last resort for Putin to put military power into people who may one day challenge him.
He will get the chop from the inside, and then the new bloke will shore up Russian borders or he will get the chop and Russia will become smaller bloc nations and the Russian nukes could make their way to terroist nations.
Assuming Putin is done, whoever comes next – no doubt won’t be good either.. If the system produces bad apples, then you must not go to the same barrel looking for a good 1.
Zeihan called out a Russian invasion and occupation of Ukraine in his first book, “The Accidental Superpower”, way back in 2014. He outlined why it was inevitable and why it had to happen no later than 2022.
The sticking point will be Crimea. Unless Russia collapse again in a repeat of USSR, I don’t see them relinquishing their only warm water sea port.
True, this is why I believed the Ukrainians were going to go hard in the south as I can’t see the “west” supporting further action there if the rest of Ukraine was able to be recovered.
Always a danger Putin may use nukes, Russia still very strong militarily in many ways. Though that would have to turn many more countries against him so lets hope he’s smart enough not to. I’d think using thermobaric bombs more likely (i don’t beleive they have been used despite claims they were some months back, explosions nowhere near big enough), but did Russia ever make many?
There is no danger of tactical nuclear weapons unless NATO and the US do so in a major way. Russian nuclear doctrine is very clear. They have a no first strike policy. They can only use nukes in the event that the very statehood of Russia is threatened. That would mean Ukraine in NATO and actively invading Crimea. In that instance tactical battlefield nukes would be used. Perhaps only a single one first as a warning. If not heeded, then all of Ukraine would be destroyed. There is a long way to move up that escalation ladder. Putin is above all a rational actor, hence trying the SMO route first, with very little disruption to those in St Petersburg, Moscow etc. Similar to the US in that way, and they will get similar results. Difficult to win when you don’t actually declare war with clear objectives and go in and win.
Some counter observations to the prevailing wisdom:
Russia is trying to fight a war without declaring a war. Total nonsense idea, especially when your enemy is backed by intel, funds and weapons from all manner of countries and is from memory the biggest army in Europe outside of Russia in terms of men. They have invaded a country using less than a 1:1 ratio of armed force manpower. The recent Ukrainian counter offensive proves they lack ” deployed” manpower. This could change if the status of this conflict is moves from SMO to anti-terror operation or an outright declaration of war. 50,000 troops just participated in exercises in the far East of the country. Changing the status of the operation would mean a more aggressive approach.
Russia has until yesterday refrained from attacking critical utilities infrastructure either in West or East Ukraine. Power, internet, water, all of this has worked the entire way through the war with almost no disruption. They have also not tried to hit political leadership. The idea that Russian C4ISR has not on several occasions known Zelensky’s location is nonsense. Compare this to how the USA conducts a war. It firstly destroys every infrastructure asset a country could conceivably use for war making and then every military target they can find at stand off distance. If the status of the war is changed, Russia could conceivably begin to target leadership and all critical infrastructure and mobilise a lot more troops to enter the conflict. Effectively an inflection point has been reached. Russian leadership will need to decide on de-escalation and negotiation, which Ukraine itself may not even want to accept, or more likely a very large escalation. With respect to hardware and the ability to wage war. Consider this. Russia is at times expelling 60,000 munitions in a single day. This is more than the entire Iraq campaign. They have also already fired more cruise missiles than that entire campaign.
60 000 rounds per day is quite a deal of barrel wear – leading to inaccuracy and possibly malfunction. Do you know how many spare barrels and gun maintenance outfits they have in the field? Serious question.
No idea. My guess is quite a lot. I’d also say the Soviet designs could take more wear and tear than US design and they would be burning through all the older platforms first.
‘Europe will be screaming for energy in less than 6 weeks.’ Not true, even if shut off now, only parts of Europe are dependent upon Russian energy, most agree on sanctions, the EU with member states have been planning since this war broke out six months ago, and keeping reservoirs topped up vs. UK which has none.
Although it will be a difficult winter, and maybe next, it’s not a zero sum game as Russia loses export and budget revenue, afraid to mobilise those from greater St. Petersburg and Moscow, meanwhile courageous municipal law makers and lawyers have been in the news demanding Putin steps down so Russia can look to the future again….. vs. right wing bloggers and separatist leaders.
It would be a change from “calibrated” support to “full”.
peter zeihan is at all times supremely confident in his own predictions and interpretations
Maybe he’s a genius, but he could also be a blowhard
At bit like those convinced about herd immunity and the ‘let it rip’ strategy to manage COVID.
im not confident about all things
I was confident AND correct about letting it rip though, wasnt I?
No because the more you get covid the more you cop organ damage and increase risk of long covid.
He got the Russian invasion of wider Ukraine correct in 2014. Admittedly Crimea had been annexed by that point.
what were some of his other predictions from 2014?
Did any others come true?
He is very confident that china is going to collapse
Interesting discussion with Peter here. Mostly about Chinas awful demographics and likely implosion. Peter won’t be 100% right. No one ever is. But even 50% right will be more than enough.
https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/modern-wisdom/id1347973549?i=1000576456334
he’s been telling anybody who will listen has appeared on dozens of podcasts the last couple months i guess spruiking his book but also wondering if he’s a mouthpiece/propagandist for intelligence agencies
Russia is done! We went past the point of no return a long time ago. Even if Putin totally withdraws from all of Ukr including Crimea, the West isn’t going to entertain any dependency on Russian Gas/Oil. Russian is likely going to end up more like North Korea – largely isolated and totally depended on China – something that Russians probably dont want as a long-term proposition.
Certainly seems likely it has brought forward the demise of their energy exports by a decade or more. And if advances like this (i know you still need to make the actual energy, but similar jumps in solar panels etc also happening) then even China, India will have to get onboard to be competitive. https://www.newscientist.com/article/2334965-fire-resistant-aluminium-sulphur-battery-charges-in-under-a-minute/ (paywall probably)
“A fast-charging battery made from two abundant materials avoids the fire hazards associated with lithium batteries”
Oil and gas are where Russian makes the big bucks.
That is the only absolute certainty Mr. Bornwild. Putin picked the wrong time to try the invasion- I think he assumed in the immediate post-COVID era the West would be pre-occupied and would not enter the fray. He was wrong. So whatever trust or goodwill is gone forever. Europe may buy some energy in the short run, but that market will evaporate as soon as alternatives are viable, and they will be soon. I am sure Gunna’s detailed report is largely accurate, and on-the-ground the battle will be a slow grind and the West will support the counter offensive to wear down the Russians. The Russians may or may not roll the dice with a small nuke just to show they have the nuts. But at the end of the day, there is a seismic shift- Russia will be stuck in an unhappy abusive marriage with China (and India to some extent). They will not trust each other- and that is a bad basis for a relationship. And China is looking increasingly like they don’t like us (and the West in general), and they are publicly OK to be mates with Russia. Which begs the final question: how can China expect us to keep buying the stuff which has made them wealthy if they are mates with the enemy of the West? I won’t.
No not true, Russia will look more like 1970-80s Turkey…..
I’ve been following it closely. I agree with his assessment for the most part.
The bit I’m not as in agreement with is his, admittedly prudent and cautious points not to count Russia out.
Here’s the apparent facts so far: * Russian corruption has thwarted many years of maintenance and upgrades of existing materiel. This means that the units already deployed, destroyed or captured, are the ‘cream’ as it were, and they are not proving to be that great. The reserve units are in various states of disrepair. To an extent, they can be made operational, but they’re still lacking modern optics, electronics, and other upgrades which were paid for, but the funds stolen. * They have failed to train, and supply their troops with even such basic supplies as proper combat boots. Their puppet republic soldiers have basically been wearing ww2 surplus. * They do not seem to have effectively overcome their poor communications and coordination. Corruption appears to have stolen the funds spent to upgrade to modern encrypted comms. * They do not appear to have completely overcome their logistics issues. Their supply chain is crude, and anachronistic. They don’t use forklifts or palletised loads. They depend heavily on rail. They have fielded everything resembling a truck they could find, and still, their lines frayed rapidly. They use large, centralised supply caches instead of smaller dispersed caches. This is changing, but not fast enough. * Their military is very top-down orders based with little encouragement of initiative at the lower levels. They follow an order, and then wait for more. They do not push an advantage on their own. * Their artillery, the one demonstrably strong element of their assault are literally wearing out their barrels and losing accuracy. * Their scouting and intelligence has proven to be ineffective to date. They lack numerous and effective scouting platforms like drones. Their results suggest that their satellites are ineffective too. As intercepted calls have stated, they simply don’t know what to aim at – and struggle to accurately hit when they do. * Their air forces have been effectively taken out of the equation with SAMs. The few attacks they still make are predominantly with non-precision weapons. * Their missiles are proving inaccurate, and have high failure rates. * Putin’s iron fist is just flat out firing commanders who fail. It’s hard for any organisation to learn anything when there is no contiguous ‘organisational memory’. * Perhaps most importantly, many of their soldiers feel impotent, unsupported, badly led, unpaid, lied to, and see no point in the operation. There are many intercepted calls criticizing everything about their operations and leadership.
Even if a full mobilisation is ordered, most of these problems will remain. What materiel will they use? What comms? What coordination between arms? What logistics? What ammunition? What repairs and spares?
The conscripted soldiers will quickly recoil in horror if they’re sent into the fray with small arms and not much else. The conscripted soldiers will quickly be have their morale poisoned by the existing soldiers. It appears to already be happening, but word will quickly spread how Ukraine treats their POWs. There are plenty of credible POW interviews on youtube, and by now, personal reports of exchanged POWs spreading through the gossip networks. It is likely many fresh conscripts will choose to surrender and live, than fight and die with poor equipment, leadership, and support.
I suspect the tide has turned permanently regardless of what the leadership of Russia want – with one possible, but hopefully unconscionable exception: tactical nukes.
Why does that have to be moderated? There’s no swearing :/
Agree, good synthesis of sources like the analysis from Draitser of Counter Punch, or Perun; both use credible Russian sources vs preference for old left/right Anglo ideologues i.e. ‘faux anti-imperialists’ or Zero Hedge conspiracists and hero worshippers.
what were some of his other predictions from 2014?
Did any others come true?
He is very confident that china is going to collapse
One retired US general said something to the effect that “armies win battles buy logistics win wars” The continuing supply of Western military equipment to Ukraine will ensure that Russia eventually withdraws. Reminiscent of the arms wrestle between the US and Russia which led to the collapse of the former Soviet Union. At the time it simply could not keep up with the US economically without a further massive redeployment towards more “guns” and less “butter” – more than the leaders of Russia were prepared to risk.\
Interestingly the GDP of Russia is only a little higher than Australia and yet they have ostensibly a vast military machine plus high speed rail between Moscow and St Petersburg, not to mention nuclear powered submarines etc. .Why is this so? Does Australia prefer more “butter’? Mostly in the form of chasing the Australian Dream but eventually turning the housing dream into a nightmare. It could of course be re-allocated to much needed infrastructure under different policies.
Russia and China are working together to create a large authoritarian block that reaches from the Pacific to the Mediterranean and Atlantic (plus the Indian Ocean if Iran and Pakistan join). The west is facing a new type of world war. However most don’t see it. Not yet.
Many are thinking of Ukraine in terms of a traditional war and a fight to occupy & control territory. However this war is about control of resources and increasing global influence and damaging the economies of your adversaries.
For now, Putin has likely achieved his immediate goals 1. Dramatically cut Ukraines export of grains for 2022-23. Ukraine is a huge producer of grain – mostly destined for Europe, ME and Africa. The crop is harvested in July-August, and production this year is down from its previous 70 million tons to 30 million tons. That reduction is sufficient to tip the world into a deficit – the usual global surplus is approx 1% of total production, so reserves are very thin. 2. Secured most of south Ukraine – which is the strategically important part that includes the Black Sea coast. If Russia holds this, then Ukraine will be landlocked. That will give Russia control of Ukraine grain exports in the years ahead (the only alternative will be rail through eastern Europe). 3. As the northern hemisphere winter looms, Putin is pushing Europe into a harsh winter of discontent. Already many businesses are closing / reducing activity – especially in Germany (Europe’s industrial centre). Energy rationing will be necessary, unemployment will rise, and a recession will become more severe. Biden has promised US will supply Europe with LNG – although US has the gas, but not the ships or port facilities. This winter will put NATO under considerable strain. A Global Times article today boasts about this, highlighting the coordination between Putin and Xi. 4. Putin is playing games with gas (Nordstream) and oil (Caspian Pipeline Consortium). We hear lots about Nordstream and those troublesome turbines. But not about CPC, which pipes 1.3mmbd of Kazakhstan oil to a Russian controlled terminal on the Black Sea coast. Since Russia invaded Ukraine, CPC has been affected by storm damage, the unexpected finding of WW2 era mines, a court ordered closure re environmental concerns, and now technical issues with buoyancy tanks. 5. To stabilise US gas prices ahead of the 22 midterms, Biden is draining the SPR. About 1 mmdb – pretty much the same rate as CPC. The SPR is at its lowest level for 40 years. This is NOT what the SPR is for. 6. Russia is making friends selling cheap fungible oil and gas to China, India, Brazil (BRICS). 7. In the next 12 months or so, a famine appears inevitable. Africa is particularly vulnerable. Russian officials have noted that Putin can destabilise Europe with millions of African refugees. https://www.businessinsider.com/germanys-ex-ambassador-russia-says-putin-wants-trigger-famine-2022-5
In face of the above, Ukraine regaining a few km of territory in the east is not important. It was never about territory.
What about China 1. Gave us Covid 19, which many people now acknowledging was likely manmade. More damaging that the virus itself, China gave the world lockdowns and other measures that had been explicitly ruled out in pandemic planning as recently as 2019. Covid 19 and our mitigations damaged western economies, broke supply chains, weaponised inflation, interfered with school education, and bitterly divided western societies. This is a hard reset – we are NOT going back to 2019. The true costs (financial and other) are now starting to appear, and are as enormous as they are frightening. Most disturbingly (but predictably), these costs are disproportionately impacting children, teens and young adults. These costs will continue to emerge for many years to come – you ain’t seen nothing yet. . 2. Quietly stopped fertiliser exports to Ukraine in 2019. 3. Quietly stockpiled 50% of the worlds grain supply. 4. Is now buying all the Russian energy it can get – which helps undermine western sanctions. 5. Used its vote of veto in the UNSC, and has generally given support to Russia.
Some interesting comments on here Steve. IMO Turkey isn’t to be under estimated when it comes to blocking the authoritarian block you envisage and could cause Russia/China a bit of grief if things head that way. I have NFI what will play out but the Turks have a lot going for them in terms of geography, demographics, history, etc
Turkey is an an important choke point.
However as globalisation recedes and the world coalesces into blocks, Turkey will need to decide which block it wants to be in.
Turkey has more leverage nowadays in the Turkic (former Soviet) Republics than either PRC or Russia, including Kazakhstan, due to culture, language, religion, economic power and more benign policies of the past.
I think that’s right.
Turkey will likely do what most countries in an important geographical location have always done – play both sides of the street to get the best deal possible.
At the end of the day however, I suspect Turkey will side with The Caucasus (those tied are pretty deep) and Russia.
I’m thinking China will let Russia down and Turkey could end up having more cards than Russia and end up being the influential power a long way from their border which effectively holds Russia back. Just a thought and I’m not stubbornly holding this view it’s just what could play out.
Think you are right about China screwing Russia at some point. They appear to be allies who share a common interest for now. At some point their interests will likely diverge. Unless BRICS is able to expand (there is recent talk of Turkey, KSA and Egypt joining BRICS) – if they can do this it will be transformational. https://www.arabnews.com/node/2127586
If BRICS can add Turkey, KSA and Saudi, it will complicate things immensely. Indian Ocean region and Africa will end up dominated by this expanded group.
Anyway for now China is happy to see US and NATO pre-occupied in Europe, and is enjoying cut-price Russian oil while the west is driven into a deeper recession, All plays into China’s plans.
Your scenario is certainly plausible re Turkey – its just not my base case.
My go to person on matters Russian is Kamil Galeev
He’s discussing the Russian manufacturing state which he calls it the Avocado economy:
“Why Russia cannot manufacture anything?
An industry’s level of complexity negatively correlates with the rank of interest groups controlling it in the Russian hierarchy. The more mafia-like, the more dominant, the simpler the industry”
And I thought Oh crap this sounds like he’s talking about Australia.
He’s very good and captures the Eastern European mindset well. The parallels between Russia’s parlous industrial capacity and Australia’s is accurate.
(A special thank you to every Government since Hawke/Keating for destroying Australia’s Industrial capacity. With an honourable mention to every Economics Department in Australia and their acolytes.)
‘It all would have been far far easier simply to come to agreement a year ago on ‘there will be no nukes in Ukraine aimed at Russia’ and ‘there will be some autonomy for the people in Eastern Ukraine’ in exchange for ‘Russia promises to keep its military away from the Ukrainian borders and all sides promise not to shoot anything at anyone’
Sorry but I can’t make sense of this. Didn’t Ukraine already give up their nukes in return for a promise from Russia not to invade? Then they did invade and annexed Crimea. Then you want Ukraine to cede more territory based on another promise not invade? There never were nukes planned to be stationed in Ukraine (and they can be placed in Finland now anyway) in the first place.
` 1 to this. It actually makes 0 sense to me. It’s appeasing a mad man and delaying the inevitable. Which they tried already.
He got NATO on his doorstep via Finland and Sweden now, it’s actually the dumbest calculus are rhetoric ever by VPP.
When things don’t seem to make sense, it’s usually because you are missing something.
File that along with ‘NATO will not expand Eastward’
Crimea Donetsk and Lugansk actually left Ukraine and then rejoined Russia (in the case of Crimea) or have become quasi states of their own (Donetsk and Lugansk) – yes certainly egged on by the Russians
But the simple fact of the matter is that Russia asked about joining NATO and the EU and was told ‘no’ , back in an era when when they were begging for it. The people who said ‘no’ have been arming up and pointing missiles at them ever since. The Ukrainians have spent about half that tine holding Russian gas exports to ransom.
Sure, Putin is a prick, but is he really the only one to have played this gane?
Correct. Interesting to speculate how things would have turned out had Russia joined NATO 20 years ago.
Interesting also to speculate what prompted this. There is only one credible justification – China eventually expanding north into eastern Russia (which may still happen when the current partnership has run its course).
Anyway Putin couldn’t cut a deal with NATO and so is cutting a deal with Xi
No he’s absolutely not the only one to have played the game. Geopolitics are never clearly black and white or good verse bad.
But the way things stood before this war (Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk), Ukraine would never have been allowed to into NATO. This situation could have persisted for decades meaning Putin had time on his side, for example to negotiate a neutrality agreement with Ukraine. In fact I think the only way Ukraine could have joined NATO would be to formally recognise Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk as republics in order to resolve their border disputes. So I don’t see NATO expansion as a sensible reason for Putin to invade Ukraine, not now anyway.
And yet NATO troops were already training in Ukraine. Ukraine may not be part of NATO, but once NATO assets goes into Ukraine, does a name even matter? The goal of the US is to take Crimea away from Russia, so Ukraine will never recognise it.
Putin is going to meet Xi this week. Will Russia be buying Chinese weapons?
US training Ukrainian troops does not equal NATO assets in Ukraine. The original statement was about Nukes being pointed at Russia from within Ukraine – it was never going to happen. Individual members of NATO export conventional weapons all over the world. So do Russia and China. France was exporting arms to Russia up until a few months ago, apparently 150 Mill worth in Euros. Until the war started, Ukraine had received nothing in the way of arms that could threaten Russia.
As the smart A**E above mentioned, perhaps I don’t understand all the cogs in play here. But I don’t buy the NATO expansion argument as a legitimate reason for invading Ukraine.
A deal was on the table for this entire thing to end early into the conflict. The terms were that Russian forces would withdraw completely and DPR and LPR would remain within Ukrainian borders, but with some autonomy and recognition of Russian language. Also part of this deal included neutrality for Ukraine, i.e. no NATO. Ukrainian leadership reneged after a visit from Boris Johnson. The conduct of the West in making this war happen would be a stain on them if the media actually did their job and stopped cheerleading this conflict and rather reported on it.
They asked to join NATO and they were refused for good reason. Ukraine will get all its territory back.
When tyrannical regimes collapse, it happens quickly Gunna. VPP’s will be no different.
It’ll be surprising if Russia survives in its current form.
Not making any assumptions as too it being better or worse.
For an opposite perspective to the original video, read this bit https://bigserge.substack.com/p/ukraine-counterattacks
And watch this bit (in Russian with subtitles) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ws4C_gyPyUs&feature=emb_logo
Seems someone dosed the MB water cooler with some top shelf ideological cognitive bias today.
The Minsk Accords, which Ukraine signed but never implemented. The late 2021 negotiations, where Russia repeatedly provided written proposals. The US refused to respond and falsely depicted Russia as not willing to negotiate. Biden telling Putin at the end of 2021 that he was reneging on his promise not to put more missiles in Ukraine. Zelensky in mid Feb repudiating the French-German attempt to revive the Minsk Accords and shortly thereafter saying Ukraine wanted nukes. Ukraine per OSCE reports greatly increasing shelling of Donbass and moving troops.
Firstly the region that was attacked by the Ukraine was lightly defended by militia and had not layered defensive fallback lines, so it was not against a peer Russian military force. Yet even then the Ukrainians took heavy losses to achieve only a PR style point victory, military its insignificant in the long run. People should really learn to read a map and how it relates to military operations.
Next hilarious thing is Russia is more of a democracy than the Ukraine is …
The SMO required formal approval by the Security Council and then the Duma. It was actually the opposition party that called for recognition of the breakaway republics in February and put forward the bill. Some observers though it was unserious precisely because it didn’t come from Putin/Putin’s party. The executive is also subject to budgetary approval by the Duma and I understand the budget process is pretty strict. Putin can’t spend money because he feels like it.
Russia may be authoritarian but Putin recently scored high on polls run by Levada, widely seen as an anti-Putin pollster. The sort of criticism you see on Telegram and Russian TV you’d never see in China or even Thailand.
And the sainted Zelensky has shut down all opposition parties, all opposition press, and jailed some opposition leaders. But we are told Ukraine is a democracy. https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/ukraine-labour-law-wrecks-workers-rights/
One can also look at the 14 City crack down on Occupy as a anti democratic authoritarian response to protest over how the GFC was handled where the biggest transfer in modernity went to the elites rather than punish those responsible and then institute social programs to get things going again. Then some wail about all the money thrown at the elites … cough oligarchs …
The gaslighting is getting so thick the O2 levels are so far down brains are falling apart …. wowzers ….
skip, it takes an effort to look beyond the one-sided propaganda and through the news. Populace believes that Russians are deliberately shelling their own positions, including the Zaporizhye nuke plant. myne above makes statements without a single shred of evidence.
Russia is losing badly, just get this through your thick skull, because they haven’t carpet-bombed the country (like the US and its allies have done everywhere in the last ~50 years) including all of the civilian infrastructure, before going in. And because a Ukrainian force estimated to outnumber the Russian force 8:1 took back ~30-40 km of land in one location of a ~1500 km front. And Ukraine is using her best forces trained in the UK by NATO and losing thousands of them in the two offensives.
Its amazing to watch the cog dis of those that rail against the liberal MSM or the Murdock et all press but in a blink of an eye believe everything it says, and then some, when it comes to other nations not willing to take orders from the neoliberal nations. Especially those that backed Trump and fought against the suggestion that he was a Russian agent or Hillary’s coronation was stolen from her by Russian interference and Trump won fair and square.
Yet Russia is trying to take over the world nom nom nom nom …. good grief Americans gave away most their freedoms willingly after 9/11 and the Patriot Act[tm], not to mention the extraordinary executive rights that were supposed to be rolled back but for some reason have not – regardless of political party.
Most are forgetting the defacto integration of Ukraine’s forces into NATO. CIA and MI6 have been present since 2014. Conveniently the neo nazi ideology of a pretty large chunk of Ukraine’s forces, Azov, Kraken etc. has been memory holed as well. Articles from NYT and other publications about Ukraine’s Nazi problem are now difficult to locate. Representatives like Ro Khanna have also deleted old tweets questioning the logic and morality of supporting these forces. Pieces from Vice news about indoctrination camps run by Azov are also conveniently missing. This is a civil war. Many in the East have no desire to remain part of Ukraine as second class citizens. Western Ukrainians still hold ceremonies celebrating figures like Stepan Bandera.
As I alluded to in a post above, Russia is trying to win a war by playing nice and using private forces or certain elements of special forces and special police. The counter offensive by Ukraine will likely jolt them into a new way of thinking. Effectively the Ukrainian regime sent poorly trained and equipped territorial forces into a meat grinder whilst they held back their better soldiers and equipment waiting for a moment like this one to ensure the aid keeps flowing. Russia and DPR forces are spread way too thin on a huge frontline and outnumbered. It doesn’t matter how good your weapons are, boots on the ground win wars. If Russia commits some proper man power they will win handily. They should also escalate with NATO. Hit suppy lines on borders and in other countries. Make them decide if they really do want to go to war.
The SMO is not about land, its about taking away the Ukrainian military [NATO supplied] combat effectiveness and securing the Russian population regions in the east and nothing more. Good Grief has no one noticed that these troops moved in without air cover or sufficient force artillery to repulse counter attacks, not to mention this entire area is open area.
I think many have watched too much or grown up on CNN like coverage on the first gulf war, pure propaganda for the home fans. Hows that worked out in the long run anywhere ….
PS has anyone thought this was just a PR media stunt to draw in more NATO funds [MIC pay day/mates looting spree] and equipment in or to cheer up the fans at home.
I understand what you are saying, but these losses of land were not intended. Their are those in the population who will now effectively be killed as ” collaborators” simply for taking Russian aid or paying for things in Roubles or teaching the Russian language at school. The SMO is about two things. Securing the Donbass and Lughansk and destroying the AFU. Neither is complete right now because Russia won’t commit forces required to get it done and is allowing NATO to escalate without real consequences to them. I don’t doubt that eventually these things will be achieved. Russians have a saying, ” we are slow to saddle, but quick to ride” Any problems will eventually be resolved.
In case you missed the militias were escorting civilians out and if any die its on Ukrainian hands.
Is Glavset adding LSD to their water coolers now? You guys are off the hook!
Just when I think some people can not lower themselves anymore you come along. First of all you’ve supported nothing but make a random drive by suggesting others that don’t share your unfounded beliefs are automatically agents of some Russian PR agency – is that you Hillary – ?????
In case you did not know I am ex military with top security clearances back in the day. Still that does not mean I drank the kool aid on WMDs in Iraq or Afghanistan had to be invaded to find one guy that never was hiding in a cave. Especially considering the Wests involvement decades earlier in those and other nations.
So I guess using past personal experience, historical/geopolitical knowledge, checking for cognitive or otherwise biases in determining what is going on is not something you support. Your preference seems to slam the back of your head with whatever cortex injection you are supplied with and have a coke and a smile.
Funner yet its these same sorts that like to blame the boomer in the past and call others sheeple …. seek mirror is my advice …
@skippy You detestable little man. How dare you brag about your security clearance. Do you know how defence clearance works in Australia? What level are you big boy? Classified? Secret? Top Secret? Are you PV?
Do not ever walk around bragging about your security clearance. Do you understand that you PoS? STFU
What the heck are you banging on about I said ex military and back in the day I did have top security clearances due to my MOS. Absolutely nothing wrong with stating that anymore than stating what units I was in because it comes with the post automatically, so you suggesting there is any bragging going on is only in your head.
The point being as a person that went through all that, was check and cleared for such security clearances, I don’t drink anyone’s kool aid – period – past or present.
PS if that was not abundantly not clear to you in the original comment I don’t hold much for anything else that rolls around in your head. Shezzzz
Mate, the only water cooler tainted is your own.
Based on what Poodle [apt name] … seriously just present an argument which is supported and attributed so one can independently verify it. What part of MIC alone post Eisenhower is confusing, top that off with sanctions over something largely the U.S. and its poodle the U.K. via NATO have as an agenda for decades pushing. There are video clips of Clinton and Biden back in the day clearly stating if you want to get Russia to come out of its corner just set up the Ukraine to make trouble on its boarder. Now go back up are read about who messed with Maiden or anything else that would have brought peace to the region.
Meanwhile back in the Ukraine its having any social rights or ownership of production taken away so international investors make packet – then some around here complain about Chinese investors. Which is it, free markets or what – ????? – because that was what most were banging on about years ago … for some that was not even enough … anarcho-capitalism.
Then some think U.S. Corporatist Shareholder Capitalism with a side of Oligarchy is the democracy everyone wants …. I mean Biden is the Senator from Master Card/Delaware thingy and whatever happened to Trump draining the Swamp … oh yeah why would he kill the very thing that made/makes him money …. ugh …
Just have to say thank you skippy. I’ve learnt a lot from your comments (although I am already fairly well read on the topic). It is very cathartic to there is someone who analyses objectivly. I will look out for your comments on the topic in the future. Greatly appreciated the work you’ve put in to counter these bizzarely naïve ideologues on this website.
“The Impending Total Collapse of Russian Forces:” Gen. Ben Hodges on Ukraine | Amanpour and Company … Youtube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9SmmsApGw48
Hugh hes a Spirit of America (charity) board member – natch …
Wow, a lot of brainwashed comments here. For starters this is an artillery war and the US industry is about to run out and has no capacity. The Russians churn shells out of factories infinitum. This war is largely about the US wanting to put a naval port in Crimea to be the bully in the region and injure Russian trade. The original plan was to install a puppet government (they did in 2014) and then do it but the people of Crimea would never allow that and left the control of Kiev (Washington DC). Then the US started building their base at Ochakiv. Right next to Russia’s Black Sea fleet. Total provocation. Now, Russia must take all of the Black Sea coast and the adjacent regions (Kiev was cutting off the water supply to Crimea). The US/UK is pursuing this delusional dangerous goal of trying to get a NATO base in the Black Sea and it’s leading us to nuclear war and economic disaster. You think Russia is just going to be bullied by Washington DC and accept missiles pointed at Moscow? Lol. What do people think will happen when price caps start? Economics 101 folks. Russia will not supply to any country with price caps. But you don’t hear this because Putin is censored. What happens when supply is cut and demand stays the same? Ummm? For daily updates on what is actually happening, look up Alexander Mercouris on YouTube. Also The Duran, The New Atlas.
Wow, what a brainwashed commie sympathiser right here!
It’s so good to see the Russian commies get expired in large numbers! The only good Russian is a dead Russian and good Russians can be found everywhere in the free land of Ukrainia that they invaded, the evil pigs!! Ukrainia will be free!!!!!
It was not free before reusa … just another puppet regime for corporatist looters and in case you had not noticed its the Ukrainians that keep dying for the privilege of being looted for absentee investors and their agendas.
I just can’t believe your not volunteering over there and doing your bit to fight for the side of light[tm] … probably more like a USO tour as a comedian to get the boys ready for the zero line turn …
Lots of ways this could all play out. We can all speculate about the small detail, and there are multiple plausible scenarios.
But here’s the fundamental thing.
The natural sustainable population of the world is about 2-3 billion. We are at 8 billion. That was only possible by years of refinement and optimisation – modern agriculture, fertilisers, globalisation, efficient supply chains….
A lot is about to go wrong. Global recession Energy crisis Food crisis and famine Waves of refugee driven migration like we have never seen Civil wars – we will see a lot more like Sri Lanka The China one-child experiment turning sour and China facing collapse – and possibly striking out for populist reasons Increased prospect of regional conflicts – Taiwan most probable, but there are others Climate change – either anthropogenic or sunspot cycles
It’s difficult to escape the conclusion we are facing an imminent depopulation event.
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